The article describes the results of application of the authors’ approach to forecasting the development of the city (in the case of one of the largest Russian cities – Ekaterinburg). The main results of the development of multi-variant long-term forecast of Ekaterinburg socio-economic development are presented: the provisions of the approach used to create such documents are set out, a brief description of the forecasting methodology is given, the key aspects of city life in the context of the proposed development scenarios are forecasted, the main risks of long-term development of the city are described. The study is based on the use of the whole set of forecasting methods such as mathematical modeling, balance and cohort-component methods, extrapolation methods and expert evaluation method. The article describes the situation in Ekaterinburg regarding other cities and evaluates key development prospects of a municipal unit. It is recommended to use the approach based on the given scenario “junctions” (each of which gives two alternative scenarios); this helped identify eight options for the city transformation. Three Ekaterinburg development scenarios are covered in detail, which provided an opportunity for considering economic and social components of a municipal system in different conditions. They are inertial, basic and innovative city development (the authors mark the importance of the innovation scenario). The authors also characterize the possible ways of transforming demographic potential, economic and human resources. The study also identifies the degree of risks and threats to Ekaterinburg long-term development, estimates external and internal (technological, infrastructural, demographic and environmental) risks. The obtained results are an important element of the city development planning system, since effective management of municipal socio-economic system development can only be implemented with proper presentation of possible directions of its transformation
Keywords
forecasting, demographic forecast, development scenario, major city, economic forecast, labor resource forecast