Journal section "Social development"

Impact of Modern Pro­Family Demographic Policy on Birth Rate Intensity in the Northern Regions of Russia

Shishkina M.A., Popova L.A.

Volume 10, Issue 1, 2017

Shishkina M.A., Popova L.A. Impact of Modern Pro­Family Demographic Policy on Birth Rate Intensity in the Northern Regions of Russia. Economic and Social Changes: Facts, Trends, Forecast, 2017, vol. 10, no. 1, pp. 161-177. DOI: 10.15838/esc.2017.1.49.9

DOI: 10.15838/esc.2017.1.49.9

Abstract   |   Authors   |   References
The paper presents findings of a research, the goal of which was to evaluate the effectiveness of state measures aimed to promote the birth rate in Russia and its northern regions, their impact on the increase of birth rate intensity in 2007–2015. The relevance of choosing these territories for the study is determined by the high migration outflow of the population of reproductive age in most regions of the North, aggravating the growing adverse effects that the changes in the age structure have on fertility, the changes are due to the country’s demographic history. Scientific novelty of the study consists in the fact that it determines the total demographic effect of current measures of pro-family policy, evaluates the results of enhancing its activities and makes a contribution to scientific studies on identifying the impact of the behavioral component of fertility on the formation of the final number of children in the family in terms of government incentives provided to families. This goal was achieved with the use of the method of standardization by age-specific birth rates for 2006. The authors have found out that in all of the territories the intensity of the birth rate increased most significantly in the women of middle and older reproductive age, but there exist regional specifics and differences in the nature of the transformation of the age-specific birth rate pattern. A 1.3-fold increase in the total fertility rate that was planned to coincide with the second phase of action of the Demographic Policy Concept of the Russian Federation until 2025 has reached the target indicators before the deadline nationwide and in the majority of Russia’s northern regions. In the conditions of implementation of the demographic policy the number of births in Russia’s northern regions was bigger by 195.6 thousand people or 18.8% compared to the number that would have been observed if the intensity of birth rate remained at the level of 2006. The article makes an attempt to substantiate the differences in the increase in the birth rate intensity in the context of Russia’s northern regions. In the period from 2010 to 2015, when there was a growing negative impact of the age structure factor on the one hand, and the intensification of demographic policy measures on the other, an increase could be observed in the contribution of a behavioral component to the formation of the resulting birth rate. The increase in birth rate intensity is associated with the fact that families with children are in need of improving their living conditions, the subjective assessment of these conditions as poor is the factor constraining the number of births in societies where small families prevail


age structure, demographic policy, reproductive behavior, birth rate intensity, factors promoting birth rate, northern regions of Russia

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