In Russia, the development of strategic socio-economic development programs is regulated by Federal Law 172-FZ of June 28, 2014, according to which long-term development ideas should be displayed on the schemes of territorial development. The main problem in the development of territorial planning schemes concerns the accuracy of forecasting the number of population living in municipal entities in relation to the time horizon determined by strategic plans. Practical application of the correlation between the population and the number of jobs created or saved can translate the amount of financial resources provided for the implementation of long-term development programs into quantitative indicators necessary to calculate the number and capacity of social and transport infrastructure facilities. The goal of our research is to prove the existence of statistical dependence of the number of population on the number of jobs in the regional and municipal economy. To achieve the goal we determined the statistical correlation between the population of Russia’s regions and the number of jobs in the economy (employed population). We propose to discuss the findings of the study in the form of a debate on the principles of formation of territorial development plans. Without denying the importance of self-identification of the population, we substantiate the possibility to receive the means to satisfy human needs as a fundamental criterion for choosing the place of residence. Since employment is the most common way of obtaining such means, the indicator “number of jobs in the economy of the territorial entity” is justified as the main quantitative indicator that can accumulate the most common strategic ideas of socio-economic development. Based on the requirements of existing legislation, we conclude that it is advisable to apply the ratio of the number of jobs to the number of population as 1 to 2. We conclude that this approach to forecasting the number of population provides the most reliable system of substantiation when making decisions about deploying the objects of regional significance in the scheme of territorial development of constituent entities of the Russian Federation. The development of territorial planning schemes as part of strategic planning documents ensures concretization of long-term ideas of socio-economic development that are worked out and approved by local authorities
Keywords
strategic planning, population, socio-economic development, social infrastructure, jobs, objects of regional significance, territory of settlements, territorial planning scheme