Journal section "Modeling and forecast of socio-economic processes"

Integrated Agent-Based Model of Labor Potential Reproduction of a Municipal Formation

Rossoshanskaya E.A.

Volume 12, Issue 1, 2019

Rossoshanskaya E.A. Integrated agent-based model of labor potential reproduction of a municipal formation. Economic and Social Changes: Facts, Trends, Forecast, 2019, vol. 12, no. 1, pp. 124-137. DOI: 10.15838/esc.2019.1.61.7

DOI: 10.15838/esc.2019.1.61.7

Abstract   |   Authors   |   References
The article presents the author’s developments in the field of agent-based modeling of labor potential reproduction that help build scenario forecasts of labor potential dynamics and test various options of management actions, choosing the optimal ones. The model simulates processes of the formation, distribution and use of labor potential of a municipal district, taking into account activities of the agents of three levels: individuals (carriers of labor potential, agents-people), legal entities (employers, agents-firms), municipal authorities. Agents-people and agents-firms are present in the model explicitly as separate types of agents. The starting number of agents-people is determined at the rate of one person from each ten. “Firms” are considered in aggregate due to available statistical data: each corresponds to one type of economic activity. Thirteen agents-firms are presented as a total. Agents-authorities are present in the model implicitly and form the functioning environment of agents of other types. Their behavior is set exogenously. The model is implemented in the simulation system AnyLogic Professional and tested on the data of the Velikoustyugsky Municipal District of the Vologda Oblast. The research information base consists of the materials, provided by the Territorial Body of the Federal State Statistics Service of the Vologda Oblast, as well as the database of the questionnaire surveys conducted by the Vologda Research Center of the Russian Academy of Sciences in the region. The advantages of the proposed approach, which make up its scientific novelty, include the fact that the model reproduces a current state and dynamics of labor potential in unity and relationship of its quantitative and qualitative aspects, simulates basic processes of each phase of labor potential reproduction, takes into account features of municipal statistics and authorities’ real powers. In addition, to describe people-agents’ labor potential quality, agent-based modeling uses a concept of qualitative characteristics of the population for the first time and each agent is endowed with eight basic qualities: physical and mental health, cognitive and creative potential, sociability, cultural and moral levels, achievement need. The agents of the same sex and age are not the same in the model


quality of population, labor potential, agent-based model, labor potential reproduction, municipal level

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