VolRC RAS scientific journal
RuEn

Journal section "Social and economic development"

Education as a Driver of Demographic Transition for Urban and Rural Populations in Post-Soviet Russia

Domnich Y.L.

Volume 19, Issue 1, 2026

Domnich Ye.L. (2026). Education as a driver of demographic transition for urban and rural populations in post-Soviet Russia. Economic and Social Changes: Facts, Trends, Forecast, 19(1), 221–236. DOI: 10.15838/esc.2026.1.103.15

DOI: 10.15838/esc.2026.1.103.15

Abstract   |   Authors   |   References
  1. Alekhin B.I. (2023). Fertility and female unemployment in Russian regions. Prostranstvennaya ekonomika=Spatial Economics, 19(1), 20–51. DOI: https://dx.doi.org/10.14530/se.2023.1.020-051 (in Russian).
  2. Alexiadis S., Eleftheriou K., Nijkamp P. (2021). Club convergence of per capita disposable income in the US. Regional Science Policy & Practice, 13(1). DOI: 10.1111/rsp3.12443
  3. Arkhangelskiy V.N., Zinkina Yu.V., Shulgin S.G. (2019). Fertility differentiation according to female education levels in Russia: Current situation and forecast scenarios. Narodonaselenie=Population, 22(1), 21–39 (in Russian).
  4. Ashraf Q., Galor O. (2011). Dynamics and stagnation in the Malthusian epoch. American Economic Review, 101(5), 2003–2041. DOI: 10.1257/aer.101.5.2003
  5. Barrios C., Flores E., Martínez M.Á. (2019). Club convergence in innovation activity across European regions. Papers in Regional Science, 98(4), 1545–1565. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/pirs.12429
  6. Bartkowska M., Riedl A. (2009). Regional convergence clubs in Europe: Identification and conditioning factors. Economic Modelling, 29(1). DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1438007
  7. Becker S., Cinnirella F., Woessmann L. (2010). The trade-off between fertility and education: Evidence from before the demographic transition. Journal of Economic Growth, 15(3), 177–204. DOI: 10.1007/s10887-010-9054-x
  8. Brown J.C., Guinnane T.W. (2002). Fertility transition in a rural, Catholic population: Bavaria, 1880–1910. Population Studies, 56(1), 35–49.
  9. Brown J.C., Guinnane T.W. (2007). Regions and time in the European fertility transition: Problems in the Princeton project’s statistical methodology. Economic History Review, 60(3), 574–595.
  10. Cheng H., Luo W., Si S. [et al.] (2022). Global trends in total fertility rate and its relation to national wealth, life expectancy and female education. BMC Public Health, 22, 1346. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1186/s12889-022-13656-1
  11. Coale A.J., Watkins S.C. (1986). The Decline of Fertility in Europe. Princeton.
  12. Domnich Ye.L. (2024a). Age-specific fertility structure of urban and rural populations in post-Soviet Russia: Regional panel data trends. Regionalistika=Regionalistics, 11(3), 5–29. DOI: 10.14530/reg.2024.3.5 (in Russian).
  13. Domnich Ye.L. (2024b). Differentiation of age-specific fertility rates of urban and rural population in post-Soviet Russia. Problemy razvitiya territorii=Problems of Territory’s Development, 28(5), 99–115. DOI: 10.15838/ptd.2024.5.133.7 (in Russian).
  14. Domnich Ye.L. (2024c). Fertility of urban and rural population in post-Soviet Russia: Regional trends. Regionalistika=Regionalistics, 11(2), 5–26. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.14530/reg.2024.2.5 (in Russian).
  15. Domnich Ye.L. (2025). Age-specific fertility regional convergence clubs for urban and rural populations in post-Soviet Russia. Regionalistika=Regionalistics, 12(4), 5–35. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.14530/reg.2025.4.5 (in Russian).
  16. Dorius S.F. (2008). Global demographic convergence? A reconsideration of changing intercountry inequality in fertility. Population and Development Review, 34(3), 519–537. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1728-4457.2008.00235.x
  17. Gabrielli G., Paterno A., Salvini S., Corazziari I. (2021). Demographic trends in less and least developed countries: Convergence or divergence? Journal of Population Research, 38(4), 221–258. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s12546-021-09264-2
  18. Galor O. (2011). Unified growth theory. Princeton University Press. DOI: 10.1515/9781400838868
  19. Galor O., Moav O. (2002). Natural selection and the origin of economic growth. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 117(4), 1133–1191. DOI: 10.1162/003355302320935007
  20. Galor O., Weil D.N. (2000). Population, technology, and growth: From Malthusian stagnation to the demographic transition and beyond. American Economic Review, 90(4), 806–828.
  21. Huber P.J. (1967). The behavior of maximum likelihood estimates under nonstandard conditions. In: Proceedings of the Fifth Berkeley Symposium on Mathematical Statistics and Probability. Berkeley, CA: University of California Press, 1, 221–233.
  22. Jimenez-Moro E., Piperopoulos P., Kafouros M. [et al.] (2023). Innovation dynamics and club convergence in innovation activity in China: A temporal perspective. Papers in Regional Science, 102(5), 791–816. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/pirs.12750
  23. Kapeliushnikov R.I. (2005). Russia’s human capital: Evolution and structural features. Vestnik obshchestvennogo mneniya. Dannye. Analiz. Diskussii, 4, 46–54 (in Russian).
  24. Klupt M.A. (2014). Paradigms and oppositions of modern demography. Demograficheskoe obozrenie=Demographic Review, 1(1), 34–56. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.17323/demreview.v1i1.1826 (in Russian).
  25. Martin T.C. (1995). Women’s education and fertility: Results from 26 demographic and health surveys. Studies in Family Planning, 26(4), 187–202. DOI: 10.2307/2137845
  26. Matysiak G., Olszewski K. (2019). A panel analysis of Polish regional cities: Residential price convergence in the primary market. SSRN Electronic Journal. DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3408797
  27. Monstad K., Propper C., Salvanes K.G. (2008). Education and fertility: Evidence from a natural experiment. Scandinavian Journal of Economics, 110(4), 827–852. DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-9442.2008.00563.x
  28. Nakagaki Y. (2019). Continuing global fertility convergence. Working Papers 195 JICA Research Institute. DOI: http://doi.org/10.18884/00001001
  29. Nisén J., Klüsener S., Dahlberg J. [et al.] (2021). Educational differences in cohort fertility across sub-national regions in Europe. European Journal of Population, 37, 263–295. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10680-020-09562-0
  30. O’Connell M. (1981). Regional fertility patterns in the United States: Convergence or divergence? International Regional Science Review, 6(1), 1–14. DOI: http://doi.org/10.1177/01600176810060010
  31. Papagni E. (2023). Long-term barriers to global fertility convergence. Journal of Population Economics, 36, 431–470. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00148-022-00895-0
  32. Phillips P.C., Sul D. (2007). Transition modeling and econometric convergence test. Econometrica, 75(6), 1771–1855. DOI: 10.1111/j.1468-0262.2007.00811.x
  33. Qian N. (2009). Quantity-quality and the one child policy: The only-child disadvantage in school enrollment in rural China. NBER Working Paper 14973. DOI: 10.3386/w14973
  34. Rosenzweig M.R., Wolpin K.I. (1980). Testing the quantity-quality fertility model: The use of twins as a natural experiment. Econometrica, 48(1), 227–240. DOI: 10.2307/1912026
  35. Stadnik N.M. (2023). Trends in regional fertility differentiation during the second demographic transition. Demograficheskoe obozrenie=Demographic Review, 10(2), 18–40. DOI: https://doi.org/10.17323/demreview.v10i2.17764 (in Russian).
  36. Strulik H., Vollmer S. (2013). The fertility transition around the world. Journal of Population Economics, 28(1), 31–44. DOI: http://doi.org/10.1007/s00148-013-0496-2
  37. Trynov A.V., Kostina S.N., Bannykh G.A. (2020). Examination of socio-economic determinants of fertility based on the regional panel data analysis. Ekonomika regiona=Economy of Region, 16(3), 807–819. DOI: https://doi.org/10.17059/ekon.reg.2020-3-10 (in Russian).
  38. Vakulenko E.S., Ivashina N.V., Svistilnik Ya.O. (2023). Regional maternity capital programmes: Impact on fertility in Russia. Ekonomika regiona=Economy of Region, 19(4), 1077–1092. DOI: https://doi.org/10.17059/ekon. reg.2023-4-10 (in Russian).
  39. Vishnevsky A.G. (2014). The demographic revolution is changing the reproductive strategy of Homo sapiens. Demograficheskoe obozrenie=Demographic Review, 1(1), 6–33. DOI: https://doi.org/10.17323/demreview.v1i1.1825 (in Russian).
  40. White H.A. (1980). Heteroskedasticity-consistent covariance matrix and a direct test for heteroskedasticity. Econometrica, 48, 817–830. DOI: 10.2307/1912934
  41. Zhang W., Xu W., Wang X. (2019). Regional convergence clubs in China: Identification and conditioning factors. The Annals of Regional Science, 62(1). DOI: 10.1007/s00168-019-00898-y
  42. Zhuravleva T.L., Gavrilova Ya.A. (2017). Analysis of fertility determinants in Russia: What do RLMS data say? Ekonomicheskii zhurnal VSHE=HSE Economic Journal, 21(1), 145–187 (in Russian).

View full article

Яндекс.Метрика