рубрика "Зарубежный опыт"

Связь между безработицей и промышленным производством: подход Фурье со структурными сдвигами

Гундуз М.

Том 13, №3, 2020

Гундуз М. Связь между безработицей и промышленным производством: подход Фурье со структурными сдвигами // Экономические и социальные перемены: факты, тенденции, прогноз. 2020. Т. 13. № 3. С. 228–240. DOI: 10.15838/esc.2020.3.69.15

DOI: 10.15838/esc.2020.3.69.15

  1. Dornbusch R., Fisher S. and Startz R. (2008). Macroeconomics. 11th Edition. The Mc-Graw-Hill Companies.
  2. Mielcová E. Economic growth and unemployment rate of the transition country – the case of the Czech Republic 1996-2009. E a M: Ekonomie a Management, 2011, no. 1, pp. 29–37.
  3. Elshamy H. The relationship between unemployment and output in Egypt. Procedia – Social and Behavioral Sciences, 2013, no. 8, pp. 22–26. DOI: 10.1016/j.sbspro.2013.06.381
  4. Hull K. Understanding the relationship between economic growth, employment and poverty reduction. In: OECD Publication Promoting Pro-Poor Growth: Employment. Paris: OECD, 2009.
  5. Freeman D.G. Regional tests of Okun's law. International Advances in Economic Research, 2000, no. 6 (3), pp. 557–570. DOI: 10.1007/BF02294972
  6. Lee J. The robustness of Okun's law: Evidence from OECD countries. Journal of Macroeconomics, 2000, no. 22 (2), pp. 331–356. DOI: 10.1016/S0164-0704(00)00135-X
  7. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US), Industrial Production Index [INDPRO]. FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Available at: (accessed: 26.10.2019).
  8. Kuscevic C.M.M. Okun’s law and urban spillovers in US unemployment. The Annals of Regional Science, 2014, no. 53(3), pp. 719–730. DOI: 10.1007/s00168-014-0640-2
  9. Meyer B., Tasci M. An unstable Okun’s law, not the best rule of thumb. Economic Commentary, 2012, no. 08. Available at:
  10. Chamberlin G. Okun's law revisited. Economic & Labour Market Review, 2011, no. 5(2), pp. 104–132.
  11. Akeju K.F., Olanipekun D.B. Unemployment and economic growth in Nigeria. Journal of Economics and Sustainable Development, 2014, no. 5(4), pp. 138–144.
  12. Cuaresma J.C. Okun's law revisited. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 2003, no. 65(4), pp. 439–451.
  13. Palley T.I. Okun's law and the asymmetric and changing cyclical behaviour of the USA economy. International Review of Applied Economics, 1993, no. 7 (2), pp. 144–162. DOI: 10.1080/758530144
  14. Silvapulle P., Moosa I.A., Silvapulle M.J. Asymmetry in Okun's law. Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, 2004, no. 37 (2), pp. 353–374. DOI: 10.1111/j.0008-4085.2004.00006.x
  15. Blackley P.R. The measurement and determination of Okun’s law: Evidence from state economies. Journal of Macroeconomics, 1991, no. 13 (4), pp. 641–656.
  16. Guisinger A.Y., Hernández-Murillo R., Owyang M.T., Sinclair T.M. A state-level analysis of Okun’s law. Regional Science and Urban Economics, 2018, no. 68, pp. 239–248. DOI: 10.1016/j.regsciurbeco.2017.11.005
  17. Dogru B. The link between unemployment rate and real output in Eurozone: A panel error correction approach. Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences, 2013, no. 99, pp. 94-103. DOI: 10.1016/j.sbspro.2013.10.475
  18. Beaton K. Time variation in Okun's law: A Canada and US comparison. Bank of Canada Working Paper, 2010, no. 7. ISSN: 1701-9397.
  19. Moosa I.A. A cross-country comparison of Okun's coefficient. Journal of Comparative Economics, 1997, no. 24 (3), pp. 335–356. DOI: 10.1006/jcec.1997.1433
  20. Altug S., Tan B., Gencer G. Cyclical dynamics of industrial production and employment: Markov chain-based estimates and tests. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 2012, no. 36(10), pp. 1534–1550.
  21. Akar S., Uysal Sahin O. The unemployment ınsurence benefit as an automatic stabilizator: Turkey case. Maliye Dergisi, 2018, no. 174, pp. 154–174.
  22. Michael E.O., Emeka A., Emmanuel E. N. The relationship between unemployment and economic growth in Nigeria: Granger causality approach. Research Journal of Financial and Accounting, 2016, no. 7(24), pp. 153–162.
  23. Madito O., Khumalo J. Economic growth-unemployment nexus in South Africa: VECM Approach. Mediterranean Journal of Social Sciences, 2014, no. 5(20), p. 79.
  24. Abbas S. Long term effect of economic growth on unemployment level in case of Pakistan. Journal of Economics and Sustainable Development, 2014, no. 5(11), pp. 103–108.
  25. Kangasharju A., Tavera C., Nijkamp P. Regional growth and unemployment: the validity of Okun's Law for the Finnish regions. Spatial Economic Analysis, 2012, no. 7(3), pp. 381–395.
  26. Kargi B. Okun's law and long term co-ıntegration analysis for OECD countries (1987–2012). International Research Journal of Finance and Economics, 2014, no. 119, pp. 77–85.
  27. Palombi S., Perman R., Tavéra C. Regional growth and unemployment in the medium run: Asymmetric cointegrated Okun’s law for UK regions. Applied Economics, 2015, no. 47(57), pp. 6228–6238
  28. Vakulenko E., Gurvich E. The relationship of GDP, unemployment rate and employment: In-depth analysis of Okun’s law for Russia. Voprosy Economiki, 2015, no. 3, pp. 5–27. DOI: 10.32609/0042-8736-2015-3-5-27
  29. Yuksel S. The causality relationship between growth, unemployment and ınflation in Russian Economy. Finans Politik & Ekonomik Yorumlar, 2016, no. 53(614), p. 43.
  30. Ibragimov M., Ibragimov R. Unemployment and output dynamics in CIS countries: Okun’s law revisited. Applied Economics, 2017, no. 49(34), pp. 3453–3479.
  31. Dickey D.A., Fuller W.A. Distribution of the estimators for autoregressive time series with a unit root. Econometrica, 1981, no. 49, pp. 1057–72. DOI: 10.1080/01621459.1979.10482531
  32. Nelson, C.R., Plosser, C.I. Trends and Random walks in macroeconomic time series. Journal of Monetary Economics, 1982, no. 10, pp. 139–162. DOI: 10.1016/0304-3932(82)90012-5
  33. Lee J., Strazicich M.C. Minimum LaGrange multiplier unit root test with two structural breaks. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 2003, no. 85 (4), pp. 1082–1089. DOI: 10.1162/003465303772815961
  34. Zivot E., Andrews D. Further evidence on the great crash, the oil price shock, and the unit root hypothesis. Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 1992, no. 10 (3), pp. 251–270. DOI: 10.1198/073500102753410372
  35. Alper A., Demiral M. Testing the convergence hypothesis for Turkey’s tourism markets: Evidence from Fourier stationary analysis. Ömer Halisdemir Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 2017, no. 10 (4), pp. 205–213. DOI: 10.25287/ohuiibf.334736
  36. Songur M. Validity of the Fisher hypothesis in Turkey: Fourier approach. In: Inesec International Social Sciences and Education Conference. Diyarbakır, Turkey, ISSEC Proceeding Book, 2018, pp. 105–113.
  37. Becker R., Enders W., Lee J. A stationarity test in the presence of an unknown number of smooth breaks. Journal of Time Series Analysis, 2006, no. 3 (5), pp. 381–409.
  38. Dag M., Kizilkaya F. Turkiye’de dis borclarin surdurulebilirligi: Fourier yaklasimi ile bir uygulama. In: Turkiye’de Guncel Mali Sorunlar [The Foreign Debt Sustainability in Turkey: Fourier Approach with an Application. Current Financial Problems in Turkey]. Edited by A. Akinci. Iksad Publications, 2018. ISBN- 978-605-7510-25-9
  39. Yilanci V. Analysing the relationship between oil prices and economic growth: A fourier approach. Ekonometri ve Istatistik e-Dergisi, 2017, no. 27, pp. 51–67.
  40. Tsong C.-C., Lee C.-F., Tsai L.-J., Hu T-C. The Fourier approximation and testing for the null of cointegration. Empirical Economics, 2016, no. 51 (3), pp. 1085–1113. DOI: 10.1007/s00181-015-1028-6
  41. Yilanci V., Aslan M., Özgür Ö. Testing the validity of PPP theory for African countries. Applied Economics Letters, 2017, no. 25 (18), pp. 1273–1277, DOI: 10.1080/13504851.2017.1418066.
  42. INDPRO. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Available at: (accessed: 11.02.2019).
  43. UNRATE. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Available at: (accessed: 11.02.2019).
  44. Enders W., Lee, J. The flexible Fourier form and Dickey–Fuller type unit root tests. Economics Letters, 2012, no. 117(1), pp. 196–199.
  45. Phillips P.C.B., Hansen B.E. (1990). Statistical inference in instrumental variable regression with I(1) processes. Review of Economic Studies, 1990, no. 57, pp. 9–125. DOI: 10.2307/2297545
  46. Meltzer A. US policy in the Bretton woods era. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, 1991, no. 73 (3), pp. 54-83.
  47. Bordo M.D. The Bretton woods international monetary system: A historical overview. In: A Retrospective on the Bretton Woods System: Lessons for İnternational Monetary Reform. University of Chicago Press, 1993, no. 3, p. 108.
  48. Fawley B., Neely C.J. Four stories of quantitative easing. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, 2013, no. 95 (1), pp. 51–88.

Полная версия статьи