Научный журнал ВолНЦ РАН (печатное издание)
22.11.202411.2024с 01.01.2024
Просмотры
Посетители
* - в среднем в день за текущий месяц
RuEn

рубрика "Международный опыт"

Моделирование и прогнозирование государственного долга в Южной Африке

Мосикари Т.

Том 17, №1, 2024

Мосикари Т. (2024). Моделирование и прогнозирование государственного долга в Южной Африке // Экономические и социальные перемены: факты, тенденции, прогноз. Т. 17. № 1. С. 228–239. DOI: 10.15838/esc.2024.1.91.13

DOI: 10.15838/esc.2024.1.91.13

Аннотация   |   Авторы   |   Список литературы
  1. Baaziz Y., Guesmi K., Heller D., Lahiani A. (2015). Does public debt matter for economic growth? Evidence from South Africa. The Journal of Applied Business Research, 31(6), 2187–2196.
  2. Balassone F., Francese M., Pace A. (2011). Public debt and economic growth in Italy. In: Economic History Working Paper 11. Rome: Bank of Italy. DOI: https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2236725
  3. Box G.E.P., Jenkins G.M. (1976). Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control. 1st edition. San Francisco: Holden-Day.
  4. Burriel P., Checherita-Westphal C., Jacquinot P., Schön M., Stähle N. (2020). Economic consequences of high public debt: Evidence from three large scale DSGE models, European Central Bank (ECB). Working Paper Series, 2450.
  5. Calitz E., Siebrits K., Stuart I. (2016). Enhancing the accuracy of fiscal projections in South Africa. South African Journal of Economic and Management Sciences, 19(3), a1142. DOI: https://doi.org/10.4102/sajems.v19i3.1142
  6. Cecchetti S.G., Mohanty M.S., Zampolli F. (2010). The future of public debt: Prospects and implications. Bank for International Settlements (BIS), BIS Working Papers, 300.
  7. Checherita-Westphal C., Hughes-Hallett A., Rother P. (2014). Fiscal sustainability using growth maximizing debt targets. Applied Economics, 46(6), 638–647.
  8. Dickey D., Fuller W.A. (1979). Distribution of the estimators for autoregressive. Time series with a unit root. Journal of the America Statistics Association, 74(366), 427–431.
  9. Dumitrescua B.A. (2014). The public debt in Romania – factors of influence, scenarios for the future and a sustainability analysis considering both a finite and infinite time horizon. Procedia Economics and Finance 8, 283–292.
  10. Mahadea D. (1998). The fiscal system and objectives of GEAR in South Africa – consistent or conflicting? South African Journal of Economics and Management Sciences (SAJEMS), 1, 3.
  11. Mellet A. (2014). Analysis of macroeconomic forecasting accuracy of South African national treasury. Mediterranean Journal of Social Sciences, 5(21).
  12. Mhlaba N., Phiri A. (2017). Is public debt harmful towards economic growth? New evidence from South Africa. Cogent Economics and Finance, 7(1).
  13. Minakir P.A., Leonov S.N. (2019). Regional public debt: Trends and formation specifics. Economic and Social Changes: Facts, Trends, Forecast, 12(4), 26–41. DOI: 10.15838/esc.2019.4.64.2
  14. Munir K., Mehmood N.R. (2018). Exploring the channels and impact of debt on economic growth: Evidence from South Asia. South Asia Economic Journal, 19(2), 171–191. DOI: 10.1177/1391561418794692
  15. Nikoloski A., Nedanovski P. (2017). Government debt dynamics and possibilities for its projection. The case of the Republic of Macedonia. In: DIEM: Dubrovnik International Economic Meeting.
  16. Phillips P.C., Perron P. (1988). Testing for a unit root in time series regression. Biometrika, 75(2), 335–346.
  17. Rahman Y., Pujiati A. (2021). Dynamic forecasting of government foreign debt: Case of Indonesia. JEJAK: Jurnal Ekonomi dan Kebijakan, 14(1). DOI: https://doi.org/10.15294/jejak.v14i1.29715
  18. Schularick M. (2012). Public debt and financial crises in the twentieth century. European Review of History: Revue Europeenne d'Histoire, 19(6), 881–897. Available at: https://doi.org/10.1080/13507486.2012.739149
  19. Were M., Mollel L. (2020). Public debt sustainability and debt dynamics: The case of Tanzania. In: Research Report 20/5, October 202. UONGOZI Institute. Available at: https://media.africaportal.org/documents/Public-debt-sustainability-and-debt-dynamics_WP20_5.pdf
  20. Zaja M.M., Krzic A.S., Habek D. (2018). Forecasting fiscal variables in selected European economies using least absolute deviation method. International Journal of Engineering Business Management, 10, 1–19. Available at: https://doi.org/10.1177/1847979017751485
  21. Zhuravka F., Filatova H., Aiyedogbon J.O. (2019). Government debt forecasting based on the Arima model. Public and Municipal Finance, 8(1), 120–127. DOI:10.21511/pmf.08(1).2019.11

Полная версия статьи