Journal section "Theoretical and methodological issues"

Models for the Dynamics of Demographic Indicators in the Conditions of Population Adaptation to Changes in the Socio-Economic Environment

Kozlova O.A., Makarova M.N., Sekitski-Pavlenko O.O.

Volume 14, Issue 4, 2021

Kozlova O.A., Makarova M.N., Sekicki-Pavlenko O.O. Models for the dynamics of demographic indicators in the conditions of population adaptation to changes in the socio-economic environment. Economic and Social Changes: Facts, Trends, Forecast, 2021, vol. 14, no. 4. pp. 48–58. DOI: 10.15838/esc.2021.4.76.3

DOI: 10.15838/esc.2021.4.76.3

Abstract   |   Authors   |   References
Socio-economic development of any territory is inherently connected with population reproduction, which is predetermined by demographic behavior. Recently, the models for the dynamics of Russia’s demographic indicators have been changing, which is characterized by a decrease in the birth and death rates, as well as a relative stabilization of the migration situation. The transformation of demographic dynamics models is a natural result of society’s adaptation to the new socio-economic reality. The changes in the behavior of the population are particularly noticeable under the conditions of abrupt transformations of the external environment, observed in the transitional periods of socio-economic systems functioning. In this regard, the purpose of the study was to determine the main models of the dynamics of demographic indicators of the Russian Federation at the present stage of development, which is characterized by a rapid change in the conditions of life activity. Based on the use of the concept of adaptation in the “human-environment” coordinates, we showed the two-dimensional adaptation of the population to changes in the external environment and constructed a decision-tree for the acts of demographic behavior. In empirical part of the study, using methods of logical and statistical analysis, we studied the dynamics of indicators of reproductive, self-preservation and migration behavior of the population in the period from 2000 to 2019, using, respectively, a set of indicators of birth rate, mortality, life expectancy and migration growth. Based on highlighting the specific characteristics of Russia’s socio-economic development in 2000–2006, 2007–2015, and 2016–2019, we identified three stages of demographic indicators dynamics, in accordance with which we proposed three models of demographic indicators dynamics, in order to expand our understanding of this phenomenon. The results obtained allowed us to form a methodological basis for future interdisciplinary research in the field of demographic behavior. They can also be used as a methodological basis for the development of demographic policy measures


model, environment, changes, demographic behavior, population adaptation

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