The successful development of Northern and Arctic areas depends on sustainable functioning of
the agricultural sector. Agriculture and fishing agriculture is a way of life of the indigenous population. The
article discusses the state of agriculture and food self-sufficiency in the Komi Republic in the years of
relatively stable development (1960–1980) and in the conditions of market reforms. It analyzes production
and consumption of food and shows a positive effect of modernization processes on the agricultural sector in
the pre-reform period. It studies market transformation of the agrarian economy, accompanied in the 1990s
by the sharp decline in agricultural production, degradation of productive capacity, rural demography, rural
infrastructure, decrease in living standard of farmers, and disparity of prices on agricultural and industrial
products. The paper discloses trends in food self-sufficiency of the northern region in 1980–2013 and
reveals reasons for the decrease in its level in the period of market reforms. It considers possible scenarios
to develop the agrarian sector and food self-sufficiency. To predict the agriculture development the author
identifies strong and weak sides, opportunities and threats by means of SWOT-analysis. The article proposes
3 scenarios: inertial (pessimistic), baseline and optimistic. It finds out the most reasonable optimistic
development scenario based on innovative modernization for the Komi Republic. The study results can
be used to adjust the current State program of agricultural development and elaborate the strategy of the
agro-food sector of the region
Keywords
komi republic, market reform, agrarian sector, food self-sufficiency, development scenarios