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Using Agent-Based Models in the Analysis and Forecast of Socio-Economic Development of Territories

Makoveyev V.N.

5 (47), 2016

Makoveyev V.N. Using Agent-Based Models in the Analysis and Forecast of Socio-Economic Development of Territories. Economic and Social Changes: Facts, Trends, Forecast, 2016, no. 5 (47), pp. 272-289. DOI: 10.15838/esc.2016.5.47.15

DOI: 10.15838/esc.2016.5.47.15

Abstract   |   Authors   |   References
The purpose of the paper is to study the essence of agent-based modeling, defining its features and prospects of usage in the modeling of socio-economic development of territories and systematization of domestic and foreign approaches to the development of prototypes for agent-based models of territories. Information basis for the research comprised the works on agent-based modeling by Russian and foreign scholars, especially articles and monographs of scientists of the Central Economics and Mathematics Institute under the Russian Academy of Sciences, papers presented in an international journal The Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation and other sources available on the Internet. The article presents theoretical and methodological foundations of agent-based models of territories. The author considers the concepts of “agent-based modeling” and “agent” and defines specifics of agent-based models in comparison with other types of simulation modeling. The paper also describes major stages of building agent-based models for territories and considers qualification requirements to a modeling subject. Furthermore, it reviews Russian and foreign approaches to the development of prototypes for agent-based models of territories. It has been determined that most of them deal with the modeling of spatial, territorial and socio-economic development of regions, cities and municipal entities. Agents in such models are presented by households, residents of regions and cities, enterprises and organizations operating in their territory, and public administration authorities (their inclusion in the model makes it possible to test different options of management impacts on territories by changing the model parameters, for instance, the introduction of certain prohibitions and quotas, issuance of permits, distribution of financial resources, etc.). At the end of the paper, the author formulates major conclusions. He shows the complexity faced by developers of agent-based models of socio-economic development and prospects for further research in this field. It has been established that the agent-based approach to the modeling of socio-economic development of territories is very promising, it helps improve the efficiency of forecasting regional development and management decisions due to a very detailed and realistic reconstruction of the internal structure of a region in the form of separate independent economic entities that interact with each other and with external environment, and also due to the possibility of fast processing and analysis of large amounts of data

Keywords

economy, mathematical modeling, agent-based models of socio-economic development

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