Journal section "Public finances"

Improving the System of Management of Risks of the Income Base of Regions’ Consolidated Budgets

Galukhin A.V., Uskova T.V.

6 (48), 2016

Galukhin A.V., Uskova T.V. Improving the System of Management of Risks of the Income Base of Regions’ Consolidated Budgets. Economic and Social Changes: Facts, Trends, Forecast, 2016, no. 6 (48), pp. 162-179. DOI: 10.15838/esc.2016.6.48.9

DOI: 10.15838/esc.2016.6.48.9

Abstract   |   Authors   |   References
Budgetary risks of the Russian regions have been characterized by a sustained upward trend since the beginning of the 200–2009 crisis. This hinders the achievement of target indicators and fails to provide financial stability and sustainable socio-economic development of territories, which makes it important to search for solutions to the scientific issue of improving the system of management of risks affecting the income base of regions’ consolidated budgets. It is necessary that the authorities made timely management decisions aimed at minimizing the impact of negative risk-contributing factors on public finances of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation. Informational and analytical basis of such operational decisions may include methodological tools of assessment of the impact of budgetary risks on the sustainability of the regional budgets’ income base. However, such tool is currently missing. The novelty of the research lies in the fact that the authors have proven that when assessing budgetary risks, principles of comprehensiveness and objectivity need to be complied with, these principles imply the consideration of the risk of failure to perform the budget, the risk of imbalance and the risk expenditure non-implementation in connection with the repayment of the region’s debt. Moreover, the authors suggest a gradation of the level of budgetary risks based on a hierarchy of groups of budget expenditures which can be reduced with minimal impact on the socio-economic development of territories. The results of testing the proposed methodological tools conducted in the constituent entities of the Northwestern Federal district have demonstrated an increase in the integral quantity of budgetary risks destabilizing the income base of regional budgets. The greatest risk is currently generated in the management of regions’ public (municipal) debt. In order to improve the management and mitigate budgetary risks, the authors have proposed an algorithm for determining the feasibility of establishing a reserve fund of a constituent entity of the Federation and establishment of its optimal amount. It has been revealed that reserves funds in all regions of the Northwestern Federal district in 2015 were many times less than the optimal amount; this made it impossible to perform the basic function of this tool of budgetary risk management. The proposed algorithm and tools for assessing the impact of budgetary risks on the sustainability of the income base of the regions’ consolidated budgets can be used by the regions’ financial bodies of executive power for improving the efficiency and effectiveness of budget management as a part of its informational and analytical support


reserve funds, budget sustainability, consolidated regional budgets, budgetary risk, income base, methodological tools for evaluation

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