Journal section "Modeling and forecast of socio-economic processes"

Theoretical Aspects of Agent-Based Modeling in the Development of the Forest Complex

Gulin K.A., Antonov M.B.

Volume 10, Issue 6, 2017

Gulin K.A., Antonov M.B. Theoretical Aspects of Agent-Based Modeling in the Development of the Forest Complex. Economic and Social Changes: Facts, Trends, Forecast, 2017, vol. 10, no. 6, pp. 59-74. DOI: 10.15838/esc.2017.6.54.4

DOI: 10.15838/esc.2017.6.54.4

Abstract   |   Authors   |   References
One of the ways to ensure sustainable economic growth in modern Russia is to enhance the efficiency of utilization of forest resources. The forest complex is a comprehensive open system with close relationships between different aspects such as ecological, social, economic, cultural, educational, and public administration. It is difficult to find a comprehensive solution to the issues of development of the forest complex if there is no evidence-based system for management decision-making. One of the promising areas of scientific research in this direction could be the application of agent-based models simulating the processes of using, protecting, and reproducing forests, forest products and forest management. The aim of the paper is to study scientific approaches to the construction of agent-based models applied to the forest sector in order to define common approaches to the formation of a set of agents and create an environment for their functioning. We provide an overview of the experience of simulation modeling of individual processes in the forest complex with the use of the agent-based approach. We give a general characteristic of the problems associated with the management of the forest complex in Russia (at the federal and regional levels). We provide an overall assessment of a high complexity of the forest complex as an object of study. The article presents a brief overview of relevant Russian and foreign research devoted to the general methodological issues of simulating the forest complex and specific models implemented with the use of an agent-based approach: the model for the Swiss timber market; the model for protection of forests in British Columbia (Canada) from insect infestation; the models for predicting and controlling forest fires, an enlarged architecture of an agent-based model for the regional forest complex. We define requirements for the regional forest complex model and consider individual aspects in the implementation of its elements. When developing the architecture of the model, we use comprehensive, system, ecosystem and institutional approaches, which allows us to create a model closest to the real forest complex. In conclusion, the article provides a general assessment of the efficiency of application of agent-based modeling in the forest sector


forest complex, agent-based modeling, systems for support to decision-making

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