Journal section "Modeling and forecast of socio-economic processes"

Regional Aspects of Investment Processes: an Empirical Analysis of the Distribution of Capital Resources in the Far Eastern Federal District

Isaev A.G.

Volume 11, Issue 4, 2018

Isaev A.G. Regional aspects of investment processes: an empirical analysis of the distribution of capital resources in the Far Eastern Federal District. Economic and Social Changes: Facts, Trends, Forecast, 2018, vol. 11, no. 4, pp. 63–76. DOI: 10.15838/esc.2018.4.58.4

DOI: 10.15838/esc.2018.4.58.4

Abstract   |   Authors   |   References
The paper estimates the dynamic investment function on the basis of the flexible accelerator model according to the data for 2000–2016 for the Far Eastern Federal District and its constituent entities. In general, the dynamics of investment in the Far Eastern Federal District are significantly influenced by the change in expected demand with an average investment accelerator value of 1.78. Having assessed the partial adjustment parameter, we see that on average per year, investments cover 40% of the difference between the actual and desired capital stock in the Far East, and the parameter increases over time. This indicates that the gap between the desired and actual capital stock in the economy of the Far Eastern Federal District increased during the study period due to the growth in demand. This gap is larger for the resource-based regions like the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia) and the Sakhalin Oblast; it is due to a higher level of expected output driven by high external demand. The rise in the cost of capital as a factor in the demand for investment on average leads to a slowdown in investment dynamics in the region. Using the seemingly unrelated regressions model, we obtain the values of tightness and direction of interregional relations. We reveal that the increase in the inflow of investments into the Sakhalin Oblast has a negative impact on the investment dynamics in other regions of the Far Eastern Federal District; the highest competition for investment resources is observed in the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia) and Khabarovsk Krai. We conclude that the flexible accelerator model less efficiently describes the dynamics of investment processes in the regions of the Far Eastern Federal District with a high hydrocarbon rent; and, consequently, dynamic processes are determined mainly by exogenous factors in relation to the region. However, since the flexible accelerator model adequately characterizes the economy of the Far Eastern Federal District, the latter is able to support the endogenously reproducing economic growth without relying solely on external demand


far east, regional growth, investments in fixed capital, flexible accelerator model

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