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Journal section "Modeling and forecast of socio-economic processes"

Applying the Index Method in the Research on Consumer Sentiment

Dement’eva I.N., Shakleina M.V.

Volume 12, Issue 1, 2019

Dement’eva I.N., Shakleina M.V. Applying the index method in the research on consumer sentiment. Economic and Social Changes: Facts, Trends, Forecast, 2019, vol. 12, no. 1, pp. 153-173. DOI: 10.15838/esc.2019.1.61.9

DOI: 10.15838/esc.2019.1.61.9

Abstract   |   Authors   |   References
The index method is an effective tool to study and assess consumer sentiment in the given territory by calculating the aggregated consumer sentiment indices based on sociological data. Our paper discusses methodological approaches used in international practice to measure and evaluate consumer sentiment with the help of integrated indices; we also consider trends in the consumer sentiment index of residents of Russia and the Vologda Oblast. Using multiple regression analysis, we investigate the impact of macroeconomic indicators on consumer sentiment. The information base of the research is presented by the results of the public opinion monitoring conducted by Vologda Research Center of RAS (VolRC RAS), all-Russian analytical centers (Levada-Center, International Institute for Marketing and Social Research GfK Rus), as well as by the data of the Federal State Statistics Service (Rosstat) and the territorial office of the Federal State Statistics Service for the Vologda Oblast (Vologdastat). The basis of various methods used in the world practice to study consumer sentiment is formed by a technique developed in the 1950s by the Survey Research Center at the University of Michigan Institute for Social Research (USA). The technique involves constructing an aggregate consumer sentiment index and has become widespread in Russia; RAS Vologda Research Center has extensive experience in regional studies of consumer attitudes and behavior based on sociological data. The results of its regional monitoring largely correlate with the all-Russian indicators, but the consumer sentiment of the Vologda Oblast residents during the measurement period is less favorable than in Russia as a whole. At the same time, long-term forecasts for development of the Russian economy look more optimistic than the estimates of the current state and short-term prospects. Such macroeconomic indicators as the turnover of retail trade of food and non-food products, the dynamics of industrial production, the consumer price index and people’s monetary incomes have a significant impact on the formation of consumer sentiment in the region. In general, the use of the indices in the studies of consumer behavior provides a rare opportunity to take into account psychological factors in the modeling and forecasting of the economy, which allows us to detect trends of the socio-economic situation in time and, on this basis, to make adjustments to the management of economic processes

Keywords

socio-economic development, consumer sentiment, income, index, autoregressive distributed lag model, retail trade turnover

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