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Journal section "Social development"

Assessing the Factors That Determine People’s Financial Behavior: an Experience of Using Regression Analysis Based on Panel Data

Belekhova G.V., Rossoshanskii A.I.

Volume 11, Issue 5, 2018

Belekhova G.V., Rossoshanskii A.I. Assessing the factors that determine people’s financial behavior: an experience of using regression analysis based on panel data. Economic and Social Changes: Facts, Trends, Forecast, 2018, vol. 11, no. 5, pp. 198-213. DOI: 10.15838/esc.2018.5.59.13

DOI: 10.15838/esc.2018.5.59.13

Abstract   |   Authors   |   References
Financial behavior determines people’s engagement in economic life and is therefore critical to social, financial, and economic stability. Numerous studies conducted in Russia since the mid-1990s point out the existence of “system problems” in the financial behavior of the country’s population; the problems include moderate savings and investment activity, passive pension strategies, and a low level of financial literacy. The reasons for this situation lie not only in the “Soviet past”, or in the prevalence of paternalistic sentiments, or in the specifics of “national mentality” in relation to money, or in the limited amount of free cash that people have, or in the “blind spots” of financial legislation. It is necessary to understand that financial behavior is a complex socio-economic phenomenon, formed by the impact of many different factors. Therefore, it is important to study factors that influence the content of people’s financial behavior. The goal of the paper is to identify macroeconomic factors in people’s financial behavior; the factors that can be taken into account in the regulation of the financial sector and the social sphere. The distinctive features of our research are as follows: we develop own system of indicators and our own classification of macroeconomic factors that determine people’s financial behavior; besides, we use the regression analysis method based on panel data. Data of the Federal State Statistics Service and the Bank of Russia on 80 subjects of the Russian Federation for the period from 2010 to 2016 are used as the information base of our study. We find out that indicators that characterize people’s incomes have the most statistically significant impact on the financial behavior of Russians. In particular, the volume of bank deposits of individuals has a positive correlation with people’s monetary incomes, and the indebtedness of individuals on the loans granted to them is positively related to the accrued wages and consumer spending. We reveal a noticeable positive impact of demographic factors (birth rate and life expectancy) on financial behavior, while the impact of institutional (number of credit institutions) and general economic (inflation and unemployment) factors turns out to be the least significant. The findings prove that the current political course aimed to support the birth rate, promote public health, and optimize the financial system is correct. However, the results of the study indicate the need to develop and implement more effective measures in terms of social policy and improving the living standards of citizens

Keywords

birth rate, financial behavior, income, panel data, econometric methods

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