The experience of effective forest management in the most developed forest countries proves the important role of the institutional environment in this process. Taking into account the territorial specifics is a necessary condition for its formation. In the Russian Federation, there has been a long-standing controversy about the ineffectiveness of the institutional environment existing in forest management. First of all, this applies to the institution of forest plots lease defined in the Forest code. As a rule, the discussions are based on the general indicators of forest development reducing the objectivity of individual elements evaluation. In this regard, one of the most important tasks at the moment is creating a methodology and tools allowing to obtain the estimates related to the development of individual elements of the forest management institutional environment, in particular, the elements of the forest lease system. The main purpose of the research is to develop the general approaches in order to analyze the dynamics of the environment elements formation associated with the lease of forest plots in the region of the Russian Federation and obtain the appropriate models on this basis. To achieve this goal, the system of forest lease in the Vologda region was studied and the models for the development of its main elements were formed. The methods of system approach, analysis and synthesis, generalization and comparison, classification and systematization, mathematical statistics were used. The scientific novelty of the research involves developing approaches to creating the models describing the dynamics of the forest lease system elements development in the Russian Federation using linear approximation of time series of their parameters. The theoretical significance lies in the development of a methodology for studying the dynamics of the institutional environment formation associated with the system of forest lease in the region of the Russian Federation. In practical terms, the research findings will allow to determine the main trends in the development of the forest lease system at a higher quality level for further comprehensive analysis, as well as to make short- and medium-term forecasts
Keywords
modeling, forest complex, institutional environment, forest plots lease