RuEn

Journal section "Spatial aspects of territorial development"

Impact of Trade Mega-Formats in the APR on Russian Export

Izotov D.A.

Volume 14, Issue 1, 2021

Izotov D.A. Impact of trade mega-formats in the APR on Russian export. Economic and Social Changes: Facts, Trends, Forecast, 2021, vol. 14, no. 1, pp. 41–55. DOI: 10.15838/esc.2021.1.73.4

DOI: 10.15838/esc.2021.1.73.4

Abstract   |   Authors   |   References
The purpose of the research is a quantitative assessment of indirect effects from the Russian export because Russia does not participate in the APR mega-formats. We show that modern processes of trade and economic cooperation in the APR are manifested in the creation of trade mega-formats: the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership and the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership were signed, and the expansion of the CPATPP for the USA, as well as the creation of a free trade zone within the APEC, was considered a promising area. The authors prove that the lack of motivation of the Russian side in joining the APR trade mega-formats is caused by a low level of tariffs on Russian commodities from the APR countries, and the risks of Russian goods replacement are not considered. After evaluating indirect effects, it was defined that there might be a slight negative impact on Russian export due to Russia not participating in the APR mega-formats. On the other hand, the competitiveness of Russian products on the market of the sub-global region may decrease in the following product groups: food products, goods of chemical industry, metallurgy, and mechanical engineering. The obtained estimates suggest that the integration processes in the Asia-Pacific Region will indirectly contribute to the weakening of the product diversification of Russian exports on the market of the sub-global region by shifting it toward a single-product raw material specialization. We show in this work that the formation of relationships of the APR mega-formats with third countries, depending on their closed or open configuration, will have a fundamental importance for Russia. The creation of closed trade blocks in the APR might mean an active substitution of Russian products and decline of the amounts of Russia’s exports on the APR market. However, if open trade blocks are created, then the discrimination toward Russian goods would not be that clear

Keywords

russia, export, import, free trade zone, product group, trade diversion effect, import duty, partial equilibrium model, trade mega-format, APR, APEC, RCEP, CPATPP, USA, Russia

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