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Journal section "Theoretical and methodological issues"

Modeling Socio-Demographic Asymmetry of Territorial Development

Makarova M.N.

Volume 14, Issue 2, 2021

Makarova M.N. Modeling socio-demographic asymmetry of territorial development. Economic and Social Changes: Facts, Trends, Forecast, 2021, vol. 14, no. 2, pp. 29–42. DOI: 10.15838/esc.2021.2.74.2

DOI: 10.15838/esc.2021.2.74.2

Abstract   |   Authors   |   References
The article explores the issues of modeling socio-demographic asymmetry using spatial econometrics. Its relevance is associated with the growing disproportions of demographic dynamics in the regional space that undoubtedly requires scientific understanding and development of appropriate management decisions. The purpose of this study is to substantiate the methodological provisions for modeling the socio-demographic asymmetry of territorial development using a case-study of a specific region. Based on an analysis of domestic and foreign publications on the study of the territorial development asymmetry, including socio-demographic one, the author proposes a typology of methodological approaches and methods of its modeling and evaluation and substantiates the need to use spatial econometrics methods, the advantage of which is not only an opportunity to assess the presence of the asymmetry phenomenon, but also to determine the links between studied territorial entities and evaluate their mutual influence in the conditions of uneven development of regional space. The calculation of Moran’s global and local indices using a case study of the Sverdlovsk Oblast’s settlement system allowed us to obtain the following results: (1) the presence of socio-demographic asymmetry in the form of spatial autocorrelation of the population indicators of the region’s municipalities was confirmed; (2) a typology of municipalities is proposed according to their contribution to the formation of socio-demographic asymmetry, which allowed us to determine the points of agglomeration attraction, as well as to show the presence of direct and inverse spatial relationships between the region’s key territories; (3) the author substantiates the trend of increasing socio-demographic asymmetry in the region as a result of the increasing role of the Yekaterinburg agglomeration and the decline in the value of other two attraction points in the settlement system. The results obtained can be used by interested specialists to justify measures to regulate the socio-demographic and spatial development of the region by using positive and leveling negative effects of the socio-demographic asymmetry

Keywords

region, population, territorial development, settlement system, socio-demographic asymmetry, spatial modeling

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