RuEn

Journal section "Regional economics"

On the Methodology of Checking Integral Estimates of Socio-Economic Objects

Alfer'ev D.A., Kremin A.E., Rodionov D.G., Velichenkova D.S.

Volume 14, Issue 6, 2021

Alfer’ev D.A., Kremin A.E., Rodionov D.G., Velichenkova D.S. On the methodology of checking integral estimates of socio-economic objects. Economic and Social Changes: Facts, Trends, Forecast, 2021, vol. 14, no. 6, pp. 86–106. DOI: 10.15838/esc.2021.6.78.5

DOI: 10.15838/esc.2021.6.78.5

Abstract   |   Authors   |   References
A reliable and high-quality assessment of scientific, technological, and innovative development of territories helps to define socio-economic conditions and forecast economic growth dynamics of a given subject. The usage of integral indicators is among the most popular approaches toward assessing science, innovative activity, and other socio-economic objects. However, since a collective synthetic category is estimated, accuracy of this metric’s characterization of an intangible subject is uncertain. In this regard, issues related to the development of methodology for checking aforementioned provisions are relevant. The purpose of the study is to define the reliability of artificially derived integral complex estimates that in turn describe various socio-economic processes and phenomena. Scientific novelty of the research is to develop an approach to determining the reliability of integral metrics based on mathematical statistical tools. We attempted to determine the quality of artificially derived integrated estimates that, according to their creators, characterize various manifestations of science, innovation, and technology. We applied corresponding methods (variance, correlation, and regression analysis) using the Innovation Development Index of RF constituent entities and assessment of territories’ scientific and technological potential. The results obtained are of practical importance in relation to the evaluation practices of the scientific and innovative sphere carried out in the Russian economy. The theoretical significance of the study is characterized by the development of an approach that can be applied to other socio-economic objects. We conclude that integral assessments become an extremely subjective tool when applied to humanitarian areas. They can be used correctly if there is a confirmed connection with the indicators: integral assessments should influence them or have a strong response from them

Keywords

economic growth, innovation activity, correlation analysis, scientific and technological development, regression analysis, integral estimate, analysis of variance, logit function

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