Journal section "Theoretical and methodological issues"

Analyzing the Industry Structure and Dynamics of Commodity Exchange between Russia, China, the USA and the EU under Trade Restrictions

Mashkova A.L., Bakhtizin A.R.

Volume 16, Issue 3, 2023

Mashkova A.L., Bakhtizin A.R. (2023). Analyzing the industry structure and dynamics of commodity exchange between Russia, China, the USA and the EU under trade restrictions. Economic and Social Changes: Facts, Trends, Forecast, 16(3), 54–80. DOI: 10.15838/esc.2023.3.87.3

DOI: 10.15838/esc.2023.3.87.3

Abstract   |   Authors   |   References
In the context of large-scale economic sanctions against Russia, it becomes an urgent task to design model complexes for assessing their impact on the economies of various countries. To this end, we use an agent-based approach and select China, the United States, the European Union, and the rest of the world as the main participants in trade relations with Russia. We design the trade wars model with the help of analyzing available data on the economies of the abovementioned countries and trade relations between them, and by assessing the imposed sanctions restrictions in quantitative and sectoral aspects. The information content of the developed model faced difficulties caused by the coordination of data on cross-industry supplies, imports and exports of goods in different countries. The article presents an algorithm that determines the sequence of processing the initial statistical data and bringing them to a unified form with detailed elaboration necessary for the model. The formation of arrays of initial data is carried out on the basis of the Federal State Statistics Service of Russia, Federal Customs Service, Eurostat, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, National Bureau of Statistics of the People’s Republic of China and the World Bank. To unify the information of these agencies, eleven enlarged industries are created in the model; each of the industries corresponds to one or more industries or commodity groups. The target result of applying the algorithm is construction of cross-country tables of industry supplies of intermediate and investment goods, containing data on trade in Russia, the USA, the EU, China and the rest of the world. In the course of data processing, we also analyzed the sectoral structure of international commodity exchange in 2021, which indicates a close relationship between the economies of the European Union and Russia before the introduction of large-scale sanctions, and relatively low indicators of commodity exchange between Russia and the United States. An analysis of the dynamics of trade exchange between Russia and the countries that imposed sanctions restrictions in 2022 showed that Russia’s imports from the EU countries fell by 38%, and exports in value terms increased by 24%, which is primarily due to a sharp increase in energy prices. For the United States, the drop in exports and imports with Russia was 70% and 50%, respectively


agent-based model, input-output tables, international commodity exchange, trade wars, economic sanctions

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